* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 11/28/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 40 43 44 43 39 39 37 33 32 33 31 29 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 40 43 44 43 39 39 37 33 32 33 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 35 37 38 37 37 39 42 45 45 44 42 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 14 11 7 12 19 39 35 29 30 13 28 33 22 14 28 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -1 6 2 6 8 1 7 14 14 4 -3 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 263 257 275 277 216 199 208 254 320 352 296 269 301 327 304 281 272 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.2 25.1 24.2 21.8 21.8 22.0 22.0 17.3 7.8 12.9 13.2 16.6 19.1 21.2 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 109 109 103 89 85 87 88 75 69 74 75 79 81 87 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 101 100 100 94 81 75 77 78 70 68 72 73 76 76 80 81 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -55.5 -56.9 -58.2 -58.8 -59.5 -60.4 -60.4 -59.8 -60.0 -60.8 -61.2 -61.0 -60.8 -59.5 -57.9 -58.2 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 46 48 51 55 59 60 53 50 39 40 51 57 48 49 46 30 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 38 23 27 48 21 -27 -50 -126 -180 -132 -158 -152 -159 -102 -73 -52 200 MB DIV 31 25 28 39 40 54 40 -42 -138 -62 11 -23 -55 -54 -74 -84 -25 700-850 TADV 8 12 11 7 2 0 11 6 1 31 38 79 21 -4 -6 -28 -7 LAND (KM) 1439 1595 1780 1842 1706 1414 1210 1037 821 517 249 865 1429 839 579 454 247 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.9 28.9 30.2 31.6 34.9 37.3 38.4 39.6 42.1 46.6 49.1 47.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 54.1 52.6 51.1 49.5 46.8 45.7 47.3 50.3 52.1 49.8 41.2 28.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 17 19 20 18 9 11 13 19 27 37 47 37 25 20 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 0. -6. -12. -15. -19. -25. -30. -32. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 28. 31. 34. 34. 32. 31. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 19. 18. 14. 14. 12. 8. 7. 8. 6. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.1 55.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 11/28/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.41 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.8% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.8% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 11/28/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 11/28/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 40 43 44 43 39 39 37 33 32 33 31 29 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 37 40 41 40 36 36 34 30 29 30 28 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 34 35 34 30 30 28 24 23 24 22 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 25 26 25 21 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT