* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 11/28/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 42 42 58 62 58 57 43 32 32 32 28 20 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 42 42 58 62 58 57 43 32 32 32 28 20 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 32 35 37 46 51 45 42 38 35 36 37 37 34 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 19 12 17 17 14 34 46 31 34 26 27 21 22 11 26 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 1 5 2 0 12 11 12 12 15 6 2 2 -6 SHEAR DIR 273 270 251 255 267 239 201 231 285 322 338 328 319 329 306 277 263 SST (C) 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.9 22.2 21.8 20.1 15.5 9.8 10.6 13.4 15.3 16.4 18.9 20.9 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 111 109 108 92 87 79 69 65 67 72 76 77 80 85 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 101 101 100 99 85 78 71 65 63 65 70 73 74 75 78 81 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.6 -55.7 -57.3 -58.4 -59.1 -60.2 -60.9 -60.8 -60.9 -61.2 -61.4 -61.5 -61.0 -60.0 -58.3 -58.5 200 MB VXT (C) 2.2 2.1 1.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 46 49 50 53 55 63 61 53 46 41 47 57 60 54 45 31 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 12 11 8 21 25 27 28 20 15 16 15 13 8 850 MB ENV VOR 106 70 38 20 28 39 -1 -55 -126 -178 -198 -208 -206 -208 -184 -165 -151 200 MB DIV 37 42 13 21 48 60 40 32 -75 -102 -65 -46 -23 -62 -47 -73 -19 700-850 TADV 5 8 11 22 34 19 9 15 21 40 46 78 53 21 0 -14 -1 LAND (KM) 1306 1439 1609 1808 1798 1478 1186 986 772 555 503 896 1593 1226 992 892 817 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.2 28.1 29.2 30.6 34.0 37.5 39.6 41.0 42.8 45.3 46.8 45.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.6 55.5 54.1 52.5 51.0 47.9 45.8 45.8 47.6 48.7 46.9 41.0 32.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 17 18 20 22 15 9 10 11 17 27 34 32 23 18 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. -1. -8. -15. -21. -26. -30. -34. -36. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. 34. 35. 32. 31. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -4. 11. 16. 18. 19. 9. 0. 1. -1. -3. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 17. 33. 37. 33. 32. 18. 7. 7. 7. 3. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.5 56.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 11/28/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.8% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.6% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 11/28/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 11/28/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 39 42 42 58 62 58 57 43 32 32 32 28 20 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 38 38 54 58 54 53 39 28 28 28 24 16 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 32 32 48 52 48 47 33 22 22 22 18 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 22 22 38 42 38 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT