* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 11/28/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 42 44 46 69 62 56 50 38 30 25 22 21 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 42 44 46 69 62 56 50 38 30 25 22 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 42 52 49 43 40 37 35 35 34 33 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 42 31 17 17 13 16 18 39 41 32 38 33 27 25 23 27 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 1 1 4 4 0 7 16 14 13 16 11 2 1 -6 SHEAR DIR 280 277 262 249 261 247 190 213 251 297 332 330 333 321 313 264 263 SST (C) 26.1 25.8 25.8 25.5 25.2 23.6 21.8 20.7 18.8 11.8 8.1 8.7 14.6 16.7 17.9 20.9 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 114 112 110 100 89 81 75 65 64 67 74 79 79 85 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 101 103 103 101 92 81 72 68 63 63 66 72 76 75 78 78 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.7 -54.8 -55.7 -57.1 -59.2 -60.0 -61.2 -61.4 -61.0 -61.4 -61.4 -62.1 -61.7 -60.7 -59.8 -60.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 2.0 1.9 0.5 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 46 49 51 55 61 64 56 52 42 41 50 58 57 44 30 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 13 11 11 30 28 27 27 22 18 15 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 110 101 65 38 24 43 19 -37 -90 -172 -199 -231 -219 -218 -218 -196 -157 200 MB DIV 14 30 50 1 22 52 67 40 -21 -81 -68 -81 -31 -41 -60 -36 -29 700-850 TADV 8 2 8 13 17 33 15 14 10 10 56 74 103 88 0 -15 -19 LAND (KM) 1195 1298 1446 1624 1830 1611 1266 1052 870 642 449 575 1123 1635 1304 1203 1127 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.5 27.2 28.1 29.4 32.5 36.4 39.1 40.5 42.0 44.1 46.3 46.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.6 56.7 55.4 53.9 52.4 49.3 46.6 45.4 46.5 48.4 48.7 45.5 38.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 15 17 19 23 19 9 9 10 13 21 31 35 28 17 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 10. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. -1. -8. -15. -23. -28. -34. -39. -42. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 34. 34. 32. 31. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 2. -1. -2. 22. 19. 18. 16. 8. 2. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 19. 21. 44. 37. 31. 25. 13. 5. 0. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.0 57.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 11/28/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.22 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.3% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.0% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 11/28/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 11/28/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 36 42 44 46 69 62 56 50 38 30 25 22 21 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 38 40 42 65 58 52 46 34 26 21 18 17 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 32 34 36 59 52 46 40 28 20 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 25 27 50 43 37 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT