* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 11/28/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 27 30 37 34 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 27 30 37 34 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 16 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 23 24 27 31 33 32 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 46 45 35 21 18 16 12 29 44 34 34 27 21 27 36 24 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 0 0 3 4 1 -2 11 10 7 5 14 10 4 -4 SHEAR DIR 290 287 285 273 253 262 229 195 232 280 323 347 313 287 313 305 263 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.3 22.9 21.8 21.5 21.9 19.6 8.8 4.7 14.9 15.2 18.1 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 116 115 112 111 95 87 83 86 78 66 67 76 78 81 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 105 105 105 103 101 87 78 73 76 71 64 67 73 75 77 79 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.0 -53.6 -54.6 -55.5 -58.0 -59.5 -60.4 -60.9 -60.4 -60.5 -60.8 -61.2 -62.1 -61.8 -61.2 -59.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 43 45 49 52 54 61 58 53 48 40 43 55 60 50 40 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 13 9 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 94 84 39 27 4 27 4 -56 -95 -157 -172 -168 -158 -193 -193 -170 200 MB DIV -4 10 26 24 0 37 51 29 20 -61 -77 -16 -6 -7 -76 -32 -56 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 4 11 21 21 10 10 12 3 37 87 105 84 26 -28 LAND (KM) 1089 1159 1274 1440 1618 1880 1575 1306 1151 964 771 490 406 977 1611 1241 1088 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.0 25.4 26.2 27.2 29.9 33.1 36.3 38.0 39.1 40.3 42.7 46.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.0 57.1 56.0 54.6 53.2 50.6 47.9 45.8 45.5 47.4 49.4 50.5 47.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 13 15 17 19 20 14 7 10 11 16 25 34 41 32 20 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 19. 19. 17. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 4. -1. -9. -17. -24. -30. -33. -38. -45. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 16. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 30. 29. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. -6. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 17. 14. 5. 1. -3. -7. -8. -9. -13. -17. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 25.0 58.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 11/28/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.97 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 11/28/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 11/28/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 26 27 30 37 34 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 25 28 35 32 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 20 23 30 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT