* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 11/27/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 26 30 32 26 24 22 18 19 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 24 26 30 32 26 24 22 18 19 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 47 46 48 37 26 19 19 11 33 26 22 33 3 23 55 56 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 4 0 0 0 6 2 4 5 -1 8 11 9 7 10 SHEAR DIR 299 289 284 282 273 275 265 218 210 251 323 352 51 223 282 324 343 SST (C) 26.0 26.4 26.6 26.3 26.2 25.6 25.2 23.8 22.8 22.2 22.6 22.5 17.9 3.3 7.7 13.3 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 112 116 120 118 117 112 109 98 90 88 91 91 79 71 72 75 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 103 108 107 108 103 98 87 79 78 80 81 75 N/A 71 73 77 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -54.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.8 -56.2 -58.6 -59.5 -60.2 -60.0 -59.8 -59.5 -59.8 -60.7 -61.6 -61.3 -60.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.4 2.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 37 39 41 45 52 54 58 55 52 45 41 48 57 69 67 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 12 12 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 95 73 66 46 5 11 -2 0 -26 -65 -97 -83 -86 -55 -51 -56 200 MB DIV -5 -12 3 19 29 13 45 52 38 -30 -82 -34 36 81 -13 -52 -77 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 2 15 14 3 9 15 1 15 14 94 168 206 116 LAND (KM) 1034 1015 1069 1188 1342 1692 1944 1730 1543 1364 1188 978 511 327 1240 857 221 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 24.7 24.5 24.7 25.3 27.2 29.4 31.7 33.7 35.1 36.2 37.9 42.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.1 58.7 57.8 56.5 55.1 52.3 49.8 47.7 46.7 47.8 50.4 53.0 53.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 10 13 15 16 15 13 8 10 13 15 29 40 46 51 50 HEAT CONTENT 0 3 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 1. -4. -11. -18. -23. -28. -29. -33. -41. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 26. 27. 27. 26. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -11. -15. -17. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 6. 4. 2. -2. -1. -0. -7. -16. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 25.3 59.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 11/27/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.98 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 11/27/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 11/27/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 24 26 30 32 26 24 22 18 19 20 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 23 25 29 31 25 23 21 17 18 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 21 25 27 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT