* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 11/27/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 29 32 33 38 40 36 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 29 32 33 38 40 36 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 19 18 19 23 28 29 28 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 53 45 44 44 33 17 13 25 38 47 26 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 1 4 -5 -1 3 4 5 13 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 297 285 282 279 292 289 198 192 229 258 319 351 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.6 25.8 25.8 24.7 22.9 21.9 20.6 20.2 18.9 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 106 109 109 112 114 106 95 88 79 76 74 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 90 94 95 99 103 97 87 79 69 66 67 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -55.8 -54.7 -54.0 -53.9 -56.0 -58.3 -59.4 -60.6 -60.5 -60.4 -60.7 -60.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.6 1.4 -0.3 0.2 -1.0 -0.5 0.3 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 39 43 45 47 61 61 49 44 46 39 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 14 15 15 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 83 78 77 56 43 30 39 -29 -86 -101 -131 -178 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -12 -11 -7 20 36 27 69 58 15 -69 -73 -64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 2 1 6 8 5 0 -8 -4 7 4 5 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1052 1050 1048 1121 1195 1476 1716 1358 1057 944 925 874 782 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 4 7 9 15 19 21 15 5 2 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. -0. -6. -13. -22. -29. -33. -38. -44. -48. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 26. 28. 27. 25. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. 0. -2. -9. -15. -20. -20. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 13. 15. 11. 2. -5. -13. -14. -16. -19. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.9 59.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 11/27/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 11/27/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 11/27/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 28 29 32 33 38 40 36 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 31 32 37 39 35 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 27 32 34 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 20 25 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT