* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 11/27/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 33 33 33 37 45 47 39 31 23 23 25 31 41 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 33 33 33 37 45 47 39 31 23 23 25 31 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 24 24 27 34 40 39 37 35 36 38 42 46 Storm Type EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 53 52 45 45 44 23 20 12 15 30 34 25 30 21 15 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 0 1 -2 0 2 8 6 4 9 11 8 12 8 6 SHEAR DIR 312 304 299 290 286 290 313 254 222 214 246 265 329 325 314 285 293 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.4 25.8 25.5 25.0 22.7 21.9 20.2 19.9 20.8 20.0 18.9 18.5 17.6 POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 111 113 117 113 111 108 94 88 79 76 80 78 77 77 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 96 100 104 102 100 99 86 79 70 68 70 70 71 71 70 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.1 -56.2 -55.1 -54.4 -55.1 -57.1 -59.1 -59.9 -60.7 -60.8 -61.1 -61.4 -61.2 -61.3 -61.3 -61.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.3 0.6 0.3 -0.5 -0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 41 40 41 43 49 55 62 65 56 53 46 41 46 53 53 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 10 11 13 18 19 14 9 5 4 6 14 22 850 MB ENV VOR 61 74 72 75 64 43 19 38 31 1 -61 -112 -141 -163 -207 -199 -212 200 MB DIV -10 -15 -9 -9 -15 38 2 62 87 80 -7 -54 -75 -55 0 3 -27 700-850 TADV -6 -3 1 0 3 4 14 15 24 17 11 4 19 21 37 35 25 LAND (KM) 1165 1097 1059 1064 1127 1366 1662 1788 1460 1170 992 887 832 904 1097 1436 1805 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.5 26.4 28.1 30.7 34.1 37.5 39.7 40.9 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.2 59.6 59.5 58.9 58.0 55.7 53.4 50.9 48.2 46.2 45.5 45.5 45.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 7 9 13 15 19 21 16 8 5 5 8 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -5. -10. -15. -20. -26. -30. -33. -37. -38. -38. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. 25. 28. 29. 28. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. 2. 3. -5. -12. -18. -18. -16. -7. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 7. 15. 17. 9. 1. -7. -7. -5. 1. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.9 59.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 11/27/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 11/27/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 11/27/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 33 33 33 37 45 47 39 31 23 23 25 31 41 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 31 31 31 35 43 45 37 29 21 21 23 29 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 26 26 26 30 38 40 32 24 16 16 18 24 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 19 23 31 33 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT