* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 11/26/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 35 36 34 31 29 33 40 44 43 38 31 25 23 26 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 35 36 34 31 29 33 40 44 43 38 31 25 23 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 25 23 23 26 34 43 45 43 43 44 44 42 Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 49 53 55 49 49 28 19 7 19 27 24 27 32 33 30 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 5 7 11 14 16 9 5 SHEAR DIR 320 321 315 307 304 286 293 314 222 186 193 229 262 284 296 311 288 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.2 23.6 22.7 22.0 13.8 15.9 17.0 17.4 17.6 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 110 111 110 111 113 113 113 108 98 93 89 68 71 75 77 77 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 97 96 95 97 99 102 98 90 85 79 65 67 70 73 73 72 200 MB T (C) -58.5 -58.1 -57.7 -56.9 -56.4 -55.1 -55.7 -57.9 -60.2 -60.8 -61.4 -61.3 -61.5 -61.7 -61.6 -61.9 -61.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.6 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 45 45 44 45 48 53 59 65 71 61 51 47 49 48 46 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 13 12 12 10 9 9 10 14 17 16 13 10 8 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 62 61 58 68 74 67 48 4 37 24 -31 -83 -90 -140 -168 -154 -155 200 MB DIV -4 -11 -13 -30 -19 0 51 18 42 77 57 -3 -23 -13 -26 -30 -38 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -5 -4 0 5 7 11 2 3 6 11 13 4 -13 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 1306 1223 1144 1102 1106 1216 1447 1756 1630 1261 938 695 617 869 1364 1778 1542 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.0 26.3 25.8 25.6 25.8 27.1 29.2 32.1 35.7 39.1 41.9 44.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.9 58.4 58.7 58.7 58.4 57.1 55.3 53.2 51.2 49.4 48.1 47.5 46.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 4 4 8 13 15 19 19 15 13 13 19 24 23 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -8. -16. -20. -24. -28. -31. -34. -39. -44. -46. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. 25. 28. 29. 28. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -4. -1. -3. -8. -12. -14. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 1. -1. 3. 10. 14. 13. 8. 1. -5. -7. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.6 57.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 11/26/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 11/26/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 11/26/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 35 36 34 31 29 33 40 44 43 38 31 25 23 26 18HR AGO 30 29 31 31 32 30 27 25 29 36 40 39 34 27 21 19 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 25 22 20 24 31 35 34 29 22 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT