* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 09/17/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 36 31 19 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 36 30 29 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 33 32 29 33 30 30 30 33 29 30 30 30 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 37 40 45 42 36 23 12 8 20 29 31 17 9 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 -3 -1 -2 -4 -5 -4 -5 -4 -6 0 8 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 302 287 284 282 278 278 208 54 33 53 38 353 259 242 N/A N/A SST (C) 22.3 22.2 22.4 22.1 20.5 20.2 22.3 21.5 20.7 19.7 19.3 19.2 19.5 8.8 8.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 89 91 91 85 83 90 83 78 75 74 74 79 67 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 77 79 82 83 79 77 78 71 68 66 65 66 71 65 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.3 -50.8 -51.0 -52.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -54.5 -54.8 -56.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.8 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 49 53 53 57 64 67 65 60 55 53 63 67 65 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 20 19 16 12 4 8 7 5 2 2 5 4 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 165 143 132 136 138 90 57 74 58 17 -5 24 31 17 -48 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 31 32 38 51 39 39 12 0 -41 -13 15 38 34 -45 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -8 -6 4 11 21 17 1 3 1 0 -11 -22 -6 -13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 719 633 462 249 41 -244 7 -62 -85 -42 20 -10 -99 -158 -297 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.7 37.2 36.9 37.3 38.3 41.4 44.2 46.0 46.8 47.1 47.3 47.6 48.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 17.3 16.1 14.1 11.7 9.2 4.6 1.6 0.2 0.5 1.6 2.9 2.8 0.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 18 21 23 21 14 6 4 5 3 5 14 19 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -7. -10. -13. -19. -24. -27. -29. -30. -31. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 5. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -20. -20. -23. -27. -32. -33. -30. -29. -28. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. -4. -16. -15. -19. -25. -36. -43. -45. -48. -48. -51. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 37.7 17.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 09/17/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 09/17/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 37 36 30 29 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 34 28 27 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 31 25 24 24 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 18 17 17 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT