* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 09/17/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 38 34 26 18 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 38 34 30 27 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 38 37 34 30 35 41 44 43 42 39 37 31 30 30 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 37 37 37 38 42 35 21 12 5 17 27 34 39 40 41 32 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -4 -5 -4 -8 -3 -5 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 345 333 311 303 284 277 271 284 20 12 25 354 342 319 297 273 239 SST (C) 22.2 22.5 22.4 22.4 22.1 19.2 18.2 20.6 20.6 20.4 19.3 19.1 19.3 19.1 19.3 8.8 8.8 POT. INT. (KT) 88 90 90 91 90 80 75 79 78 77 74 73 72 76 80 70 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 77 79 80 82 82 73 69 69 68 67 66 65 63 68 73 69 70 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -55.7 -56.5 -56.8 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.1 2.7 3.0 2.8 0.4 1.6 0.8 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 45 48 51 55 58 63 60 62 65 67 64 56 52 59 64 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 21 19 15 11 5 11 9 6 8 7 5 4 4 1 850 MB ENV VOR 160 173 153 137 152 184 181 166 126 102 50 -6 7 17 -13 -36 7 200 MB DIV 5 6 26 32 22 45 25 21 -2 -26 -36 -8 2 -3 19 40 -112 700-850 TADV 0 -7 0 -9 -3 21 8 4 1 1 0 1 4 -7 -21 -32 -41 LAND (KM) 849 805 699 524 318 2 -85 119 211 199 143 177 220 149 -82 -66 -423 LAT (DEG N) 38.7 37.7 37.0 36.9 37.5 40.1 42.9 44.7 45.5 46.0 46.7 46.9 46.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.0 18.3 16.8 14.8 12.5 8.9 6.8 5.9 5.0 4.4 5.0 6.4 6.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 17 19 18 13 6 4 4 4 4 1 9 19 30 35 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 11 CX,CY: 2/-10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -10. -12. -17. -22. -28. -35. -42. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -22. -18. -22. -28. -26. -27. -28. -29. -28. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -14. -22. -19. -24. -33. -37. -46. -57. -67. -73. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 38.7 19.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 09/17/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 09/17/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 40 38 34 30 27 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 37 33 29 26 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 34 30 26 23 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 24 20 17 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT