* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 09/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 45 44 43 38 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 45 44 43 38 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 46 45 42 33 30 34 37 40 37 38 31 33 30 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 30 36 39 37 36 41 36 20 18 18 19 26 37 34 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 1 -5 -8 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -6 -6 -5 -8 -6 -3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 1 355 344 338 326 298 279 258 290 275 284 314 7 4 5 327 279 SST (C) 20.1 21.0 21.5 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.1 18.1 19.0 21.3 20.2 18.8 17.3 17.0 17.6 9.0 8.8 POT. INT. (KT) 79 81 83 85 87 90 90 77 77 84 78 74 70 70 74 68 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 71 72 74 76 80 81 72 71 73 69 67 64 64 68 66 67 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.1 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -50.3 -50.7 -51.5 -52.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.9 -55.4 -55.6 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 4.6 5.2 4.4 3.8 3.9 3.6 2.8 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 2.1 0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 41 44 46 49 48 52 57 59 63 67 69 62 55 65 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 23 22 21 20 18 13 9 8 7 6 9 5 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 133 125 142 154 151 146 164 128 114 88 65 5 -3 -27 -33 -60 200 MB DIV 6 7 -11 -1 18 1 31 38 20 4 8 -27 -31 -22 4 41 -30 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -7 -2 2 -1 2 -2 2 3 0 -4 -8 8 28 LAND (KM) 876 847 830 824 804 639 294 -58 -91 147 96 -7 39 20 -66 103 -172 LAT (DEG N) 42.0 41.2 40.7 40.0 39.0 37.5 37.7 40.0 42.8 44.9 46.3 47.7 49.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.7 19.1 18.8 18.7 18.5 16.3 12.2 8.2 5.5 4.0 3.0 3.3 4.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 9 10 14 18 20 14 10 7 7 6 6 13 22 26 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ -9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -14. -20. -23. -26. -28. -31. -37. -42. -42. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -17. -23. -27. -30. -33. -28. -32. -35. -33. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. -7. -15. -27. -37. -40. -44. -48. -49. -62. -75. -79. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 42.0 19.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 09/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 09/16/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 45 44 43 38 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 41 36 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 34 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT