* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 09/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 46 45 43 36 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 46 45 43 36 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 48 48 47 44 40 37 31 36 40 41 41 39 36 32 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 24 36 36 32 43 40 41 35 19 19 19 22 35 56 49 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 0 -6 -4 -3 -3 -7 -2 -3 -2 -3 -8 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 5 354 353 5 4 338 300 272 262 286 303 309 334 353 355 353 341 SST (C) 19.1 19.2 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.2 22.4 22.3 20.9 17.5 19.6 18.9 18.4 18.4 18.6 19.9 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 75 77 80 83 84 87 89 90 85 74 78 75 72 73 74 80 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 68 70 72 74 75 76 78 80 77 69 70 67 65 65 67 72 75 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -49.8 -49.9 -49.9 -51.0 -51.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 5.2 5.4 5.2 4.7 5.4 4.1 3.5 3.0 2.5 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 39 38 38 37 38 46 52 57 61 60 63 61 57 52 48 46 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 25 25 24 22 21 19 15 16 16 15 13 12 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 101 100 106 105 125 159 171 172 171 162 157 103 60 44 11 0 -1 200 MB DIV -50 -55 -19 12 -5 -5 8 37 29 19 11 -1 -23 -54 -3 -8 -25 700-850 TADV 11 0 1 0 0 -5 -1 -5 10 -1 7 -2 -2 0 -3 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 1074 1047 1000 953 918 813 670 402 109 -81 169 290 376 467 437 356 436 LAT (DEG N) 45.2 44.2 43.0 41.8 40.6 38.9 37.6 37.8 39.7 42.8 45.2 46.9 47.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.2 22.0 21.4 20.6 19.9 18.6 16.7 13.6 10.3 7.9 7.5 8.2 9.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 13 13 12 10 10 14 18 15 10 7 5 6 8 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -20. -23. -24. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -14. -20. -23. -26. -27. -29. -34. -40. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. -8. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -20. -21. -22. -25. -27. -28. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -14. -23. -34. -45. -47. -48. -50. -57. -68. -81. -93. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 45.2 22.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 09/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.05 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 09/15/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 48 46 45 43 36 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 47 46 44 37 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 43 36 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT