* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 09/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 51 48 40 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 51 48 40 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 54 54 54 53 49 44 40 37 32 37 41 43 42 40 36 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 2 17 27 39 38 43 40 40 34 25 18 20 23 33 39 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 4 -2 0 -1 2 -5 -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 -3 -1 -2 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 177 199 348 342 351 3 337 295 271 263 270 301 303 318 333 353 350 SST (C) 17.8 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.1 21.4 22.7 22.2 22.3 21.0 17.6 20.1 19.1 18.1 17.7 17.5 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 69 71 75 78 82 86 91 87 89 85 75 80 76 71 69 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 62 64 67 71 74 77 79 76 78 77 69 71 68 64 63 63 64 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 -50.9 -51.8 -53.6 -53.6 -52.9 -52.4 -53.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 4.5 5.5 5.3 5.1 4.9 5.2 3.8 3.3 2.7 2.9 2.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 39 38 38 38 37 45 53 59 60 59 63 64 62 60 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 27 27 26 24 23 21 18 15 11 15 13 13 11 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 113 100 83 76 88 117 167 158 181 187 149 151 111 71 38 17 1 200 MB DIV 2 -31 -67 -62 -37 -17 1 12 31 38 15 22 5 -7 -45 -21 -7 700-850 TADV 7 0 6 1 4 2 -2 -4 1 16 21 4 4 0 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1052 1054 1103 1110 1070 988 784 605 390 144 -79 159 175 150 184 249 333 LAT (DEG N) 47.0 46.8 46.2 45.0 43.5 40.3 38.3 37.8 38.2 39.8 42.6 45.1 47.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.6 22.4 22.5 22.7 22.3 20.6 18.2 16.0 13.6 10.7 8.0 6.9 6.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 9 14 16 16 11 9 11 17 16 11 8 5 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. -26. -29. -30. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -18. -22. -26. -27. -28. -30. -33. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -9. -15. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -15. -20. -27. -23. -25. -25. -27. -28. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -23. -32. -43. -50. -59. -55. -59. -65. -76. -86. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 47.0 22.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 09/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -39.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 09/15/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 53 51 48 40 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 51 48 40 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 46 38 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 34 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT