* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 09/01/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 43 51 59 67 73 78 84 90 95 98 102 105 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 43 37 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 34 37 32 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 21 15 12 12 7 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 65 56 65 42 7 10 81 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 29.3 29.3 30.2 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 149 146 144 158 157 172 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 148 146 142 140 156 153 172 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 59 61 60 69 70 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 56 46 48 45 51 70 60 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 9 18 36 38 27 34 10 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 8 6 8 5 -1 0 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 309 292 302 330 313 62 -54 -46 -123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 11 12 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 108 125 81 49 41 41 44 51 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 21. 29. 37. 43. 48. 54. 60. 65. 68. 72. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 75.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 09/01/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 80.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.53 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 17.2% 12.3% 9.5% 8.6% 10.3% 11.4% 21.8% Logistic: 3.7% 5.8% 3.5% 2.6% 1.3% 5.4% 8.9% 31.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 6.2% 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 6.3% 16.6% Consensus: 3.8% 9.7% 6.6% 4.1% 3.3% 5.6% 8.9% 23.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 09/01/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 09/01/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 43 37 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 41 35 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 37 31 25 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT