* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 09/01/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 38 46 54 61 68 73 78 84 90 95 98 102 105 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 38 46 54 61 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 38 43 49 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 15 14 18 14 14 8 7 1 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 2 1 2 0 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 73 65 51 67 10 10 29 108 41 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.6 29.3 28.9 30.0 30.1 29.7 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 151 147 158 151 171 172 162 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 153 149 145 158 147 170 169 152 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 8 11 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 56 59 55 63 67 70 76 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 68 51 39 45 35 58 50 50 59 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 21 11 16 38 21 36 6 16 22 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 8 10 7 7 4 3 1 10 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 335 319 268 269 317 138 59 49 -187 -130 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 14 13 14 14 12 13 11 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 105 135 81 49 45 49 62 22 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 16. 24. 31. 38. 43. 48. 54. 60. 65. 68. 72. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 73.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 09/01/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 84.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.56 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 19.4% 13.8% 10.9% 9.9% 11.3% 11.6% 20.8% Logistic: 7.2% 9.2% 6.5% 7.4% 3.9% 11.1% 12.2% 35.3% Bayesian: 1.4% 7.7% 6.8% 0.3% 0.2% 1.8% 8.7% 15.2% Consensus: 5.5% 12.1% 9.0% 6.2% 4.7% 8.1% 10.8% 23.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 09/01/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 09/01/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 38 46 54 61 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 43 51 58 38 28 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 39 47 54 34 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 39 46 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT