* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 08/31/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 47 54 62 69 73 78 83 89 94 96 101 104 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 39 47 54 62 60 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 43 48 54 62 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 14 12 16 10 16 10 7 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 2 3 0 1 0 2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 80 64 53 44 30 27 1 69 291 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 30.1 30.9 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 155 155 154 155 156 153 171 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 151 155 155 154 155 151 145 162 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 57 56 55 58 56 65 67 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 69 63 43 36 32 29 51 35 41 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 37 27 20 22 28 32 26 1 18 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 6 7 14 9 7 1 2 2 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 261 322 280 225 213 239 128 161 -11 -184 -145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 15 15 15 12 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 55 113 144 85 54 62 53 66 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 403 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 39. 40. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 17. 24. 32. 39. 43. 48. 53. 59. 64. 66. 71. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 72.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 08/31/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 90.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.60 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 20.9% 14.7% 11.0% 10.1% 11.7% 12.9% 28.4% Logistic: 7.2% 13.3% 8.7% 5.9% 2.8% 10.3% 16.7% 45.2% Bayesian: 2.9% 37.9% 22.7% 1.4% 2.0% 2.9% 26.6% 22.1% Consensus: 5.8% 24.1% 15.4% 6.1% 5.0% 8.3% 18.7% 31.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 08/31/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 08/31/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 39 47 54 62 60 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 43 50 58 56 35 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 38 45 53 51 30 22 19 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 30 37 45 43 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT