* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 08/31/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 37 47 56 64 69 74 80 86 91 93 97 100 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 37 47 56 64 58 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 34 39 45 45 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 16 14 17 14 14 8 9 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 2 2 2 1 2 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 69 74 60 43 52 20 26 14 151 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.0 29.2 30.2 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 147 154 154 154 158 152 154 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 147 154 154 154 157 146 145 164 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 12 8 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 56 58 58 58 56 55 61 67 69 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 53 69 70 49 36 30 42 45 44 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 50 44 34 23 15 16 28 12 22 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 5 5 6 8 4 5 7 0 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 267 245 312 320 244 251 191 134 140 -21 -179 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 15 15 16 14 11 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 64 52 77 128 62 54 61 53 68 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 370 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 41. 43. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 12. 22. 31. 39. 44. 49. 55. 61. 66. 68. 72. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 70.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 08/31/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.51 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.88 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 19.3% 13.5% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 13.0% 6.9% 4.1% 2.6% 9.5% 17.4% 47.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 16.3% 3.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 12.4% 12.7% Consensus: 3.7% 16.2% 8.0% 4.6% 0.9% 3.4% 13.9% 19.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 08/31/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 08/31/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 31 37 47 56 64 58 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 34 44 53 61 55 35 27 25 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 29 39 48 56 50 30 22 20 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 32 41 49 43 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT