* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 08/31/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 30 32 36 44 51 59 65 68 74 82 88 90 95 99 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 30 32 36 44 51 59 65 43 32 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 36 41 48 37 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 21 16 14 24 12 12 8 5 6 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 3 1 1 0 1 1 3 2 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 70 59 64 52 42 38 24 348 54 261 22 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.6 29.0 29.7 31.0 31.0 29.4 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 144 147 149 147 154 165 171 171 160 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 144 143 147 149 147 154 163 171 171 159 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 11 10 9 10 10 11 9 10 9 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 63 65 63 64 61 66 69 73 74 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 65 63 72 82 55 42 43 56 54 58 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 66 59 46 42 22 31 31 30 14 20 36 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 4 6 8 4 4 0 3 2 3 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 172 131 129 173 294 305 324 121 44 43 -100 -168 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 12 9 10 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 38 47 61 56 128 45 43 54 74 45 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 42. 44. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 7. 11. 19. 26. 34. 40. 43. 49. 57. 63. 65. 70. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 68.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 08/31/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.83 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 16.7% 11.7% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 10.7% 4.6% 2.4% 2.0% 6.2% 12.5% 39.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 11.7% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 3.6% 8.4% Consensus: 2.6% 13.0% 6.1% 3.6% 0.7% 2.2% 8.8% 15.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 08/31/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 08/31/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 30 32 36 44 51 59 65 43 32 29 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 27 28 30 34 42 49 57 63 41 30 27 26 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 36 43 51 57 35 24 21 20 19 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 29 36 44 50 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT