* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 08/31/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 37 43 50 56 63 66 73 77 83 85 89 93 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 37 43 50 56 63 66 55 36 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 33 37 41 47 55 52 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 18 15 19 15 17 10 8 2 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 2 4 0 -1 0 -1 -3 0 0 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 82 88 68 60 66 40 37 347 17 30 173 342 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.7 28.7 29.2 29.8 30.7 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 149 148 148 149 153 148 148 156 167 172 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 151 149 147 146 145 150 145 146 153 165 172 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 11 10 9 11 10 10 9 11 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 61 63 65 67 65 71 70 70 73 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 7 6 7 7 5 5 5 5 6 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 69 65 62 70 75 70 50 51 61 70 66 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 78 68 50 46 37 24 17 48 17 39 40 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 5 5 5 8 1 -2 0 4 6 -3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 300 281 249 245 253 270 196 158 293 129 150 -82 -178 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 12 11 12 13 13 12 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 48 46 54 60 52 112 88 62 57 61 74 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 41. 43. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -13. -13. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 18. 25. 31. 38. 41. 48. 52. 58. 60. 64. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 66.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 08/31/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.33 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.87 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 19.4% 13.5% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 25.4% 12.7% 9.0% 9.3% 15.0% 21.5% 59.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 16.0% 2.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 6.0% 27.5% Consensus: 4.1% 20.3% 9.7% 6.3% 3.1% 5.1% 12.9% 29.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 08/31/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 08/31/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 32 37 43 50 56 63 66 55 36 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 35 41 48 54 61 64 53 34 28 26 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 37 44 50 57 60 49 30 24 22 21 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 28 35 41 48 51 40 21 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT