* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 08/30/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 41 48 57 66 71 76 82 88 94 97 101 103 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 41 48 57 66 71 76 47 34 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 36 40 46 54 63 75 47 34 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 14 16 14 15 15 12 11 7 7 7 4 8 4 10 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 0 -1 1 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 3 3 0 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 58 75 90 98 80 79 32 50 9 43 31 123 357 23 352 54 73 SST (C) 29.3 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 29.0 28.7 28.6 29.2 29.7 31.0 31.4 29.4 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 150 151 150 150 148 146 153 148 146 156 164 172 172 158 150 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 150 151 150 150 147 145 150 146 144 154 162 172 172 153 143 131 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 9 8 8 10 9 10 9 9 8 9 7 9 7 9 6 700-500 MB RH 57 63 67 64 63 66 66 68 70 73 73 74 73 72 74 73 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 98 83 74 76 79 78 77 71 69 71 97 82 59 54 35 48 200 MB DIV 49 70 87 76 74 64 38 33 48 52 20 31 38 37 43 47 32 700-850 TADV 5 3 2 2 2 7 8 4 1 0 3 4 0 4 3 7 4 LAND (KM) 145 178 243 270 247 256 302 273 276 290 24 -74 -52 -99 -151 -70 -92 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.5 14.4 15.0 15.5 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.2 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.5 64.0 65.2 66.5 67.8 70.2 72.8 75.3 77.9 80.5 83.0 85.3 87.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 60 43 40 40 44 56 55 111 105 35 37 27 61 51 13 17 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 41. 43. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 16. 23. 32. 41. 46. 51. 57. 63. 69. 72. 76. 78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 62.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 08/30/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.89 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 19.3% 13.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 23.7% 9.5% 4.9% 4.5% 17.2% 23.9% 63.9% Bayesian: 2.8% 45.1% 13.5% 1.5% 0.6% 3.9% 11.2% 46.3% Consensus: 4.8% 29.4% 12.1% 5.3% 1.7% 7.0% 15.7% 36.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 08/30/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 08/30/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 34 41 48 57 66 71 76 47 34 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 37 44 53 62 67 72 43 30 26 24 23 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 39 48 57 62 67 38 25 21 19 18 18 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 31 40 49 54 59 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT