* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 07/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 39 48 56 61 63 67 73 78 84 89 93 96 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 39 48 56 61 63 67 73 78 84 89 93 96 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 29 33 37 42 46 49 51 55 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 10 9 11 8 7 7 11 6 6 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 2 3 0 0 1 1 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 46 50 29 12 29 355 282 303 279 335 307 345 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.8 28.9 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 135 138 139 141 145 144 144 150 151 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 133 134 138 139 141 145 144 144 150 151 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 58 56 57 60 61 63 67 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 18 21 19 21 23 33 25 30 38 33 39 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -44 -26 0 12 -5 -10 -15 -7 -6 25 34 39 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -4 -6 -4 -1 0 -2 -6 -4 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1346 1327 1311 1234 1160 1002 864 751 635 593 420 172 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 12 14 14 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 22 24 24 26 37 36 30 34 32 55 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 23. 31. 36. 38. 42. 48. 53. 59. 64. 68. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 39.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 07/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 16.2% 11.9% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 14.0% 13.7% 7.0% 1.9% 8.6% 9.0% 16.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 0.4% 1.9% Consensus: 3.6% 10.7% 9.9% 5.5% 0.7% 3.4% 6.7% 6.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 07/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 07/21/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 34 39 48 56 61 63 67 73 78 84 89 93 96 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 37 46 54 59 61 65 71 76 82 87 91 94 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 40 48 53 55 59 65 70 76 81 85 88 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 32 40 45 47 51 57 62 68 73 77 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT