* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 07/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 54 60 64 66 69 73 78 81 83 83 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 54 60 64 66 69 73 78 81 83 83 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 29 33 37 41 46 50 52 53 56 59 63 66 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 11 9 13 6 6 9 10 9 9 12 16 17 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 0 3 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 51 37 36 43 20 24 353 320 281 295 291 316 299 324 311 323 312 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 139 141 142 141 141 146 144 149 151 150 152 150 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 137 139 141 142 141 141 146 144 149 151 150 152 150 147 147 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 9 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 60 56 56 59 60 57 61 59 63 66 70 66 65 62 62 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 4 7 8 10 18 25 34 43 29 39 37 53 51 57 59 200 MB DIV -36 -44 -30 -10 9 -16 -6 -14 -6 9 29 17 5 23 25 26 21 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -7 -2 -2 -3 -5 -8 -2 4 1 14 14 10 LAND (KM) 1297 1302 1277 1252 1184 1008 838 692 577 546 328 192 302 347 311 256 133 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.5 9.8 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.5 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.7 39.3 40.0 40.8 41.7 43.9 46.4 49.1 52.0 55.0 58.1 61.3 64.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 10 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 15 15 15 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 22 26 30 31 29 34 32 29 36 32 49 41 47 71 65 69 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 29. 35. 39. 41. 44. 48. 53. 56. 58. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.7 38.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 07/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 12.4% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 18.6% 18.1% 7.7% 2.5% 10.7% 10.6% 17.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 2.3% 4.5% Consensus: 2.1% 13.2% 11.1% 5.8% 0.9% 3.9% 7.9% 7.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 07/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 07/21/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 54 60 64 66 69 73 78 81 83 83 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 44 52 58 62 64 67 71 76 79 81 81 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 39 47 53 57 59 62 66 71 74 76 76 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 39 45 49 51 54 58 63 66 68 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT