* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 07/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 31 38 46 53 58 61 64 69 75 80 84 88 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 31 38 46 53 58 61 64 69 75 80 84 88 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 34 39 41 42 42 44 48 53 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 12 13 12 10 5 4 7 8 9 10 8 10 6 13 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 0 3 1 0 3 2 3 5 3 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 57 44 35 40 38 23 30 333 259 281 253 280 265 327 262 320 300 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.5 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 139 140 140 143 141 142 144 147 144 149 150 151 145 150 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 137 139 140 143 141 142 144 147 144 149 150 151 144 150 146 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 57 60 60 59 61 62 66 66 70 67 67 64 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -1 -5 -4 6 11 12 19 34 35 42 36 46 51 66 75 83 200 MB DIV -21 -44 -57 -51 -35 -13 -15 -17 -5 -16 15 14 9 9 4 1 23 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -5 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 2 1 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 1286 1278 1271 1262 1234 1121 943 787 645 555 531 332 189 256 289 184 148 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.4 11.0 11.7 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.0 38.5 39.1 39.7 40.5 42.3 44.5 46.9 49.4 52.3 55.2 58.1 61.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 11 11 12 13 15 15 15 15 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 26 30 33 29 33 31 33 37 33 49 41 43 42 61 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 38. 42. 44. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 26. 33. 38. 41. 44. 49. 55. 60. 64. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.5 38.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 07/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -41.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 6.9% 6.0% 1.9% 0.5% 3.5% 5.2% 12.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 1.0% 3.1% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 1.7% 4.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 07/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 07/21/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 24 31 38 46 53 58 61 64 69 75 80 84 88 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 30 37 45 52 57 60 63 68 74 79 83 87 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 26 33 41 48 53 56 59 64 70 75 79 83 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT