* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 07/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 30 38 46 52 55 59 63 68 74 77 81 84 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 30 38 46 52 55 59 63 68 74 77 81 84 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 29 33 36 38 39 41 44 48 52 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 13 12 12 7 5 7 10 12 10 9 12 12 14 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -4 -5 -1 0 0 -2 0 1 0 1 6 3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 64 59 48 42 43 31 7 305 311 297 326 296 333 306 322 297 330 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 139 139 141 142 143 140 145 149 144 149 151 152 147 149 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 136 137 140 142 143 140 145 149 144 149 151 152 147 149 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 12 10 12 700-500 MB RH 58 60 59 57 56 60 59 60 61 66 66 71 70 66 61 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 0 -7 -12 -8 1 7 12 28 40 40 30 35 19 25 42 47 200 MB DIV -22 -34 -57 -72 -59 -10 -9 1 -4 0 9 50 34 14 -9 21 0 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -4 -1 0 -2 -4 -2 -6 1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1305 1284 1276 1281 1257 1178 998 808 650 529 524 384 151 244 300 167 194 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.8 9.1 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.5 11.2 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.6 38.1 38.6 39.2 39.8 41.6 43.7 46.1 48.8 51.5 54.5 57.5 60.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 16 15 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 23 26 31 30 30 30 34 40 30 49 38 41 55 65 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 35. 38. 42. 44. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 26. 32. 35. 39. 43. 48. 54. 57. 61. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.6 37.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 07/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -48.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 6.4% 5.9% 1.9% 0.5% 3.1% 4.1% 10.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 2.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% 1.4% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 07/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 07/20/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 24 30 38 46 52 55 59 63 68 74 77 81 84 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 29 37 45 51 54 58 62 67 73 76 80 83 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 25 33 41 47 50 54 58 63 69 72 76 79 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT