* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 10/29/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 50 50 52 52 48 44 40 32 29 26 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 50 50 52 52 48 44 40 30 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 48 49 51 56 57 56 59 61 49 37 32 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 21 19 20 20 14 18 19 22 26 31 31 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -1 0 5 -2 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 1 12 SHEAR DIR 245 230 247 246 255 233 202 235 267 309 331 306 259 SST (C) 18.7 18.1 18.3 19.8 20.5 22.2 20.9 21.4 20.8 19.8 16.5 25.1 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 72 71 73 79 82 89 85 89 89 86 78 114 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 65 64 67 71 74 79 78 83 84 82 75 107 72 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.2 -53.3 -55.6 -57.3 -58.8 -60.0 -60.9 -60.8 -60.8 200 MB VXT (C) 3.9 4.1 3.1 3.3 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.0 1.7 0.4 -1.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 2 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 63 55 51 52 49 50 41 37 41 49 58 70 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 28 27 26 26 24 18 13 10 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 329 292 265 252 263 219 182 48 -67 -122 -51 -29 -52 200 MB DIV 14 6 -9 0 19 2 -20 -13 2 -19 21 43 -17 700-850 TADV 3 8 9 -25 -10 -10 -14 -18 -9 0 66 13 63 LAND (KM) 1199 1174 1102 1026 991 1219 1537 1859 1413 632 -113 -24 -90 LAT (DEG N) 43.0 43.4 43.5 43.1 42.1 39.1 37.8 38.6 39.6 39.5 39.4 41.3 45.5 LONG(DEG W) 38.8 38.9 39.8 41.1 42.4 42.3 38.8 33.2 25.6 16.5 7.7 -0.9 -9.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 8 12 14 15 18 26 33 35 33 36 37 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -16. -23. -29. -37. -41. -41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. -2. -6. -10. -18. -21. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 43.0 38.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 10/29/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 10/29/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 10/29/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 49 50 50 52 52 48 44 40 30 29 29 18HR AGO 50 49 49 50 50 52 52 48 44 40 30 29 29 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 49 49 45 41 37 27 26 26 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 42 42 38 34 30 20 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT