* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 10/29/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 60 58 57 53 54 53 46 41 33 21 51 V (KT) LAND 65 63 60 58 57 53 54 53 46 41 33 26 29 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 60 58 58 59 61 62 62 63 60 44 32 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 18 19 15 15 12 17 23 26 36 39 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -5 -4 -1 -5 -3 -3 -4 -8 1 0 SHEAR DIR 286 259 238 220 229 229 230 229 242 267 309 320 292 SST (C) 20.0 19.9 19.7 20.0 20.6 20.0 20.8 20.6 20.9 20.2 19.2 16.9 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 75 74 73 76 79 78 81 83 87 86 84 80 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 66 64 64 67 70 69 72 76 80 81 81 77 72 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.6 -55.7 -57.2 -59.5 -60.5 -61.7 -61.1 200 MB VXT (C) 4.8 3.8 4.0 4.4 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.5 1.3 0.1 -1.2 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 64 66 66 59 55 49 50 44 37 40 51 67 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 32 30 29 29 26 27 23 18 14 9 4 29 850 MB ENV VOR 349 339 317 291 275 289 252 177 52 -44 -89 -12 61 200 MB DIV 26 12 12 -4 -24 21 4 -4 -33 -6 7 67 50 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -3 5 7 -14 -15 -30 -19 -8 2 79 9 LAND (KM) 1153 1160 1162 1140 1109 1139 1306 1532 1859 1331 579 -202 -270 LAT (DEG N) 42.2 42.2 42.3 42.3 42.1 40.7 39.4 39.2 39.9 40.5 40.5 41.5 45.7 LONG(DEG W) 40.0 39.9 39.8 40.1 40.7 41.6 40.5 37.3 32.1 24.8 15.8 6.2 -3.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 3 6 7 9 16 24 32 36 38 41 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -23. -27. -30. -32. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -4. -8. -10. -16. -25. -32. -39. -47. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -8. -12. -11. -12. -19. -24. -32. -43. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 42.2 40.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 10/29/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 1.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 10/29/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 10/29/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 60 58 57 53 54 53 46 41 33 26 29 18HR AGO 65 64 61 59 58 54 55 54 47 42 34 27 30 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 58 54 55 54 47 42 34 27 30 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 50 51 50 43 38 30 23 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT