* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 10/28/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 62 60 58 54 51 50 41 32 22 16 17 V (KT) LAND 65 65 62 60 58 54 51 50 41 32 22 16 25 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 61 60 60 61 62 63 62 58 53 51 35 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 18 17 13 10 16 30 40 37 29 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 6 4 2 -1 -4 -3 3 -1 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 323 279 249 229 211 174 177 221 253 263 272 277 269 SST (C) 19.7 19.3 19.8 20.8 20.9 22.3 21.7 20.7 19.5 17.6 15.9 17.2 3.6 POT. INT. (KT) 76 74 77 82 83 89 87 85 83 80 77 79 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 68 66 68 73 74 78 77 79 77 76 75 75 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -52.1 -53.3 -54.5 -56.4 -57.6 -58.8 -60.1 -60.7 200 MB VXT (C) 4.7 4.4 3.7 3.8 4.2 3.8 3.0 2.8 2.0 0.8 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 69 69 67 62 57 48 55 49 46 47 57 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 35 32 30 30 27 25 24 18 13 8 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 338 327 311 286 265 290 274 208 103 23 -39 -53 18 200 MB DIV 29 17 6 -19 -25 -12 9 20 11 -8 8 40 51 700-850 TADV -3 0 -6 -4 2 -1 -2 -14 -10 -21 -19 41 86 LAND (KM) 1087 1030 984 961 986 1182 1423 1566 1773 1256 484 198 -172 LAT (DEG N) 42.9 43.3 43.2 42.6 41.4 38.8 37.3 38.8 41.5 43.5 44.4 45.4 48.5 LONG(DEG W) 40.4 40.9 41.6 42.4 43.2 43.4 41.4 37.2 32.1 24.6 14.8 5.4 -2.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 11 13 12 13 22 26 33 35 31 30 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -20. -25. -28. -31. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -13. -17. -26. -34. -43. -49. -48. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -15. -24. -33. -43. -49. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 42.9 40.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 10/28/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 10/28/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 10/28/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 62 60 58 54 51 50 41 32 22 16 25 18HR AGO 65 64 61 59 57 53 50 49 40 31 21 15 24 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 57 53 50 49 40 31 21 15 24 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 49 46 45 36 27 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT