* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 10/28/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 60 59 53 47 44 41 34 24 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 60 59 53 47 44 41 34 24 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 63 61 59 59 60 61 61 62 60 56 52 51 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 12 13 18 14 14 18 30 35 44 44 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 -2 5 2 3 -3 -7 0 0 -6 -9 -1 SHEAR DIR 2 327 285 250 228 198 184 221 244 260 281 287 296 SST (C) 19.3 18.3 18.3 18.9 21.1 22.6 21.7 21.0 20.0 18.4 17.3 16.0 17.1 POT. INT. (KT) 77 73 73 76 85 90 85 84 82 79 78 77 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 69 66 67 69 75 79 75 76 75 74 75 75 76 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -52.7 -53.8 -55.7 -57.3 -59.4 -60.4 -60.4 200 MB VXT (C) 4.1 4.5 4.3 3.9 4.0 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.4 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 66 71 72 72 67 60 54 55 52 45 45 49 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 37 35 33 32 28 26 24 22 18 13 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 340 336 328 307 280 279 299 238 159 74 -26 -20 52 200 MB DIV 44 35 0 0 -14 -29 18 13 -2 -19 -27 26 61 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 -1 0 4 10 -11 -27 -19 19 19 79 LAND (KM) 1185 1141 1056 970 939 1120 1332 1482 1592 1779 1199 473 222 LAT (DEG N) 42.4 43.3 43.7 43.5 42.5 39.6 37.9 38.1 40.1 42.1 43.5 44.3 45.6 LONG(DEG W) 39.4 39.4 40.3 41.6 42.8 43.3 42.1 39.3 35.6 30.8 23.9 14.7 5.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 8 11 15 12 9 15 19 23 30 35 35 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 374 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -21. -26. -29. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -21. -26. -32. -40. -47. -52. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -6. -12. -18. -21. -24. -31. -41. -48. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 42.4 39.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 10/28/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 10/28/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 10/28/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 63 60 59 53 47 44 41 34 24 17 DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 63 60 59 53 47 44 41 34 24 17 DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 57 51 45 42 39 32 22 15 DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 48 42 39 36 29 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT