* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 10/28/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 63 61 59 51 44 41 38 30 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 63 61 59 51 44 41 38 30 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 65 62 59 58 57 58 60 61 59 55 50 47 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 11 13 15 18 15 20 35 42 35 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 9 4 -3 2 0 2 -2 -4 1 -1 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 146 13 339 292 247 206 184 176 225 252 267 263 267 SST (C) 19.5 19.7 18.3 18.1 19.0 20.5 22.1 21.5 20.4 19.8 17.9 17.7 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 77 78 74 73 76 82 87 85 83 83 80 81 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 69 70 67 67 69 74 76 75 76 76 76 78 78 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -52.6 -53.4 -54.5 -56.3 -57.6 -58.8 -59.8 200 MB VXT (C) 4.5 4.0 4.4 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.1 2.5 1.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 62 68 71 73 71 60 59 53 56 53 51 52 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 38 35 34 32 28 25 24 21 18 13 7 3 850 MB ENV VOR 322 338 338 331 308 264 286 286 198 102 17 -54 -16 200 MB DIV 86 53 14 -1 10 -37 -9 25 2 1 1 14 31 700-850 TADV -24 0 0 4 1 1 10 0 -17 -38 -28 9 41 LAND (KM) 1248 1272 1214 1113 1026 1019 1224 1398 1538 1722 1370 581 165 LAT (DEG N) 41.2 42.0 43.0 43.6 43.4 41.2 38.9 38.0 39.2 41.6 43.4 44.3 45.1 LONG(DEG W) 39.5 38.5 38.6 39.6 40.9 42.9 42.5 40.8 37.2 32.7 26.0 16.1 5.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 11 13 9 11 19 23 31 39 39 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -22. -26. -30. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -21. -26. -33. -41. -49. -55. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -6. -14. -21. -24. -27. -35. -46. -56. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 41.2 39.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 10/28/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 10/28/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 10/28/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 63 61 59 51 44 41 38 30 19 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 62 60 58 50 43 40 37 29 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 57 49 42 39 36 28 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 45 38 35 32 24 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT