* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 09/22/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 45 47 50 53 57 57 58 59 62 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 45 47 50 53 57 57 58 59 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 43 43 45 47 50 54 59 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 15 17 24 32 23 18 9 13 9 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 4 2 -4 -4 -3 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 1 4 17 18 29 35 38 39 33 84 140 143 186 SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 158 156 159 161 161 161 163 161 161 159 159 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 158 154 156 157 156 154 154 150 147 143 142 132 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 68 68 66 64 66 68 73 72 69 62 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 12 10 8 8 5 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 15 16 15 12 6 2 -14 -19 -14 -24 -19 -14 -10 200 MB DIV 28 69 81 47 20 15 -7 41 7 33 39 48 34 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 172 159 207 261 311 399 217 39 126 302 468 633 767 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 47 46 50 55 58 63 85 73 75 72 45 31 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 26. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 18. 22. 22. 23. 24. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.8 59.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 09/22/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.34 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 22.9% 15.2% 9.5% 9.4% 10.5% 0.0% 19.9% Logistic: 7.7% 13.8% 9.8% 4.3% 1.5% 2.8% 2.4% 3.5% Bayesian: 2.4% 11.4% 13.3% 1.8% 0.7% 10.6% 10.9% 11.2% Consensus: 5.7% 16.0% 12.8% 5.2% 3.9% 8.0% 4.4% 11.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 09/22/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 09/22/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 42 45 47 50 53 57 57 58 59 62 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 42 44 47 50 54 54 55 56 59 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 38 41 44 48 48 49 50 53 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 30 33 36 40 40 41 42 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT