* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 09/21/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 39 45 50 51 53 53 56 58 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 39 45 50 51 53 53 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 33 33 35 37 39 42 45 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 22 25 24 23 25 16 15 13 22 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 0 1 -4 -1 -3 0 0 -2 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 331 339 344 5 23 39 36 32 31 37 70 71 43 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 161 157 161 161 158 159 156 160 165 162 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 167 161 157 161 157 151 150 144 146 153 152 148 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 65 65 68 64 66 68 69 68 66 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 19 13 17 5 0 12 -7 0 -8 -18 -34 -44 -53 200 MB DIV 20 28 32 47 49 30 31 22 45 9 18 3 27 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -8 -8 -7 -4 0 -2 -3 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 345 233 179 232 300 402 302 145 55 32 122 322 581 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 12 11 9 8 7 5 5 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 38 53 48 50 56 59 69 79 73 75 84 70 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 771 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 7. 15. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 21. 23. 23. 26. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 57.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 09/21/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.94 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 18.9% 12.5% 8.3% 7.2% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% Consensus: 2.5% 7.6% 5.0% 3.1% 2.5% 3.6% 0.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 09/21/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 09/21/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 34 39 45 50 51 53 53 56 58 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 38 44 49 50 52 52 55 57 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 34 40 45 46 48 48 51 53 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 33 38 39 41 41 44 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT