* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 09/21/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 33 39 46 52 53 56 61 65 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 33 39 46 52 53 56 61 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 40 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 22 24 21 26 16 16 13 11 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 2 0 2 -4 -1 -3 0 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 322 330 340 348 8 42 43 50 30 39 41 111 97 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.4 29.2 29.8 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 167 160 156 166 158 159 160 155 160 164 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 166 167 160 156 166 155 152 150 142 146 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 71 69 70 70 69 69 68 69 70 66 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 17 20 14 9 12 13 -3 6 0 16 18 6 -19 200 MB DIV 5 14 16 26 36 46 9 21 18 38 0 29 0 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -7 -4 -4 -9 -2 -2 -3 0 5 0 -1 LAND (KM) 387 338 194 116 166 289 401 269 172 69 48 153 244 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 32 40 40 47 56 54 79 94 76 72 75 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 7. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 8. 14. 21. 27. 28. 31. 36. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 56.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 09/21/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.99 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 12.6% 8.4% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 1.7% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 4.7% Consensus: 1.2% 5.2% 3.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.4% 3.2% 2.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 09/21/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 09/21/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 25 26 33 39 46 52 53 56 61 65 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 33 39 46 52 53 56 61 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 30 36 43 49 50 53 58 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 23 29 36 42 43 46 51 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT