* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 09/21/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 28 29 37 42 46 48 47 49 54 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 28 29 37 42 46 48 47 49 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 26 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 14 19 20 22 18 30 26 23 19 21 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 4 6 9 1 1 -9 -4 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 310 328 323 323 327 347 19 42 43 31 25 17 40 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.8 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 160 160 159 155 148 159 160 161 163 159 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 163 160 160 159 155 145 155 154 155 156 152 153 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 9 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 73 73 69 71 70 69 69 69 67 69 70 67 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 10 11 9 8 7 6 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 33 23 18 18 10 -1 -1 -1 3 -21 -27 -34 -13 200 MB DIV 88 83 42 48 29 21 54 35 47 20 32 43 57 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -3 0 -2 0 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 7 11 LAND (KM) 540 491 457 365 308 104 132 222 334 371 192 169 395 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.5 11.1 11.9 12.7 13.7 14.8 16.5 18.2 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 51.7 53.6 55.3 56.7 58.0 60.1 61.7 63.2 64.1 64.9 65.0 64.1 62.2 STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 15 13 12 10 8 7 6 8 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 24 25 27 30 38 58 59 67 88 62 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 7. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 12. 17. 21. 23. 22. 24. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 51.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 09/21/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.96 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 19.0% 12.8% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 11.0% 4.1% 1.7% 1.1% 2.8% 3.6% 7.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 3.6% Consensus: 2.2% 10.5% 5.8% 3.2% 0.4% 1.0% 4.9% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 09/21/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 09/21/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 28 29 37 42 46 48 47 49 54 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 27 28 36 41 45 47 46 48 53 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 24 32 37 41 43 42 44 49 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 18 26 31 35 37 36 38 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT