* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 09/20/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 35 40 46 48 50 47 49 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 35 40 46 48 50 47 49 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 32 31 31 31 31 31 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 8 11 16 23 23 24 30 23 23 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 7 9 9 7 3 -4 -6 -3 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 293 297 298 312 325 324 8 20 41 29 20 11 66 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 161 161 160 161 150 156 161 159 160 165 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 158 161 161 160 161 149 154 156 153 155 161 163 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 10 6 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 70 69 69 69 74 69 71 71 76 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 9 11 12 10 10 11 9 8 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 28 26 22 20 0 -4 9 -6 -6 -23 -13 -4 200 MB DIV 62 106 110 78 63 21 36 27 31 14 39 48 44 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -6 -2 0 0 2 -6 -1 -1 -1 -2 7 LAND (KM) 667 590 528 510 405 210 112 200 301 418 245 42 309 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.6 11.1 11.8 12.5 13.4 14.3 15.8 17.9 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 49.5 51.5 53.3 55.0 56.5 59.1 61.1 62.8 64.2 65.2 65.8 65.5 63.9 STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 17 16 14 12 10 9 7 7 10 12 17 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 24 24 25 36 37 55 56 57 78 71 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 7. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -10. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 15. 21. 23. 25. 22. 24. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 49.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 09/20/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.95 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 22.1% 15.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 23.0% 10.0% 5.7% 3.3% 8.8% 6.8% 14.7% Bayesian: 1.1% 6.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.8% 11.8% Consensus: 3.6% 17.1% 8.8% 5.1% 1.1% 3.3% 6.4% 8.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 09/20/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 09/20/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 35 35 40 46 48 50 47 49 55 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 32 37 43 45 47 44 46 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 26 31 37 39 41 38 40 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 17 22 28 30 32 29 31 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT