* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 09/20/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 46 49 52 54 53 53 53 56 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 46 49 52 54 53 53 53 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 35 36 36 36 37 39 42 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 12 8 7 16 24 23 23 21 20 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 4 7 9 11 6 5 -5 -2 -3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 292 292 295 303 311 329 341 7 30 42 22 15 9 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 155 158 161 160 160 157 151 159 160 163 164 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 155 158 161 160 160 157 148 154 154 156 157 152 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 72 74 74 73 70 67 67 69 69 67 67 70 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 13 11 11 10 8 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 28 31 32 22 21 9 -3 -6 -4 -3 -20 -10 -18 200 MB DIV 22 58 108 106 77 46 2 42 29 35 15 28 50 700-850 TADV 3 -1 -4 -4 -1 0 3 5 -4 1 -1 0 4 LAND (KM) 782 667 584 530 518 372 149 196 278 378 341 184 201 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.5 13.2 14.1 15.2 16.9 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 49.5 51.4 53.2 54.9 57.6 59.9 61.6 63.1 63.9 64.6 64.6 63.9 STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 18 17 15 13 11 9 7 6 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 20 22 24 24 31 44 46 60 61 72 83 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 7. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -4. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 21. 24. 27. 29. 28. 28. 28. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 47.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 09/20/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.95 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 28.1% 16.4% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 11.0% 45.7% 27.9% 13.3% 8.6% 15.0% 9.9% 15.4% Bayesian: 1.8% 18.3% 8.9% 1.8% 0.8% 3.9% 0.6% 5.8% Consensus: 6.5% 30.7% 17.7% 8.4% 3.1% 6.3% 8.1% 7.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 09/20/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 09/20/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 40 46 49 52 54 53 53 53 56 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 36 42 45 48 50 49 49 49 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 36 39 42 44 43 43 43 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 26 29 32 34 33 33 33 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT