* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 08/24/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 39 48 59 67 73 76 80 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 39 48 59 67 73 76 80 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 30 34 40 47 55 62 68 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 15 10 5 11 10 8 6 8 11 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 3 3 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -6 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 94 106 106 94 69 37 15 11 343 338 304 301 286 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 144 145 146 143 143 146 146 148 150 149 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 142 143 144 140 139 142 140 141 142 143 144 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 45 44 43 42 41 43 44 49 51 54 54 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 12 11 10 10 11 10 10 8 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 39 37 35 32 22 28 11 21 14 13 -5 0 -10 200 MB DIV -4 -4 2 -3 -17 -42 -10 -14 29 20 20 35 25 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 884 852 819 782 751 703 695 745 711 637 590 551 546 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 16 17 15 15 20 28 39 42 40 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 8. 16. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -6. -9. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 14. 23. 34. 42. 48. 51. 55. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.1 46.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 08/24/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 17.5% 12.2% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 10.1% 7.2% 3.0% 1.3% 5.2% 6.6% 13.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 2.6% 10.7% 6.8% 3.7% 0.4% 1.8% 6.1% 4.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 08/24/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 08/24/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 31 39 48 59 67 73 76 80 79 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 37 46 57 65 71 74 78 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 32 41 52 60 66 69 73 72 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 24 33 44 52 58 61 65 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT