* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 08/24/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 40 49 59 69 76 80 86 89 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 40 49 59 69 76 80 86 89 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 49 59 70 78 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 19 18 10 7 5 11 3 7 2 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -4 -4 0 1 4 0 2 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 76 93 107 110 109 44 23 9 37 321 244 243 262 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 146 147 146 144 146 148 150 149 149 152 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 146 147 146 144 145 146 147 144 143 145 147 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 50 48 46 47 46 43 44 45 47 53 51 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 12 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 56 42 35 41 36 32 22 8 23 18 18 17 18 200 MB DIV 2 -3 -9 -5 0 -26 -4 -3 11 19 56 46 42 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -7 -8 -7 -6 -5 -1 0 2 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 948 862 790 719 675 597 594 519 414 305 292 345 444 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.2 13.9 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 45.2 46.7 47.9 49.1 50.1 52.3 54.2 56.0 57.4 58.8 59.9 61.1 62.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 15 17 16 15 20 30 43 37 33 38 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 408 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 15. 24. 34. 44. 51. 55. 61. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.1 45.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 08/24/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.84 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 17.6% 12.1% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 14.0% 14.8% 7.7% 2.3% 5.6% 3.3% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 3.2% 10.7% 9.3% 5.2% 0.8% 2.0% 5.3% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 08/24/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 08/24/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 40 49 59 69 76 80 86 89 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 38 47 57 67 74 78 84 87 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 33 42 52 62 69 73 79 82 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 34 44 54 61 65 71 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT