* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 08/23/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 43 52 62 73 80 87 93 96 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 43 52 62 73 80 87 93 96 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 36 41 47 57 67 78 85 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 13 17 18 10 12 5 9 3 8 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 1 0 0 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 83 78 77 87 92 81 43 47 3 7 348 280 283 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 145 144 143 146 143 142 142 141 146 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 144 145 144 142 144 138 136 134 133 139 142 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 52 50 48 46 45 43 42 44 45 48 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 70 56 45 36 38 36 33 25 18 20 14 12 6 200 MB DIV -7 0 0 -14 -19 -27 -48 -17 3 23 7 14 20 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -4 -6 -4 -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1224 1128 1050 987 933 847 794 798 808 863 839 764 706 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.4 12.1 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 41.7 42.9 43.9 44.9 45.9 47.7 49.3 50.7 52.0 53.0 54.0 55.2 56.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 16 14 14 14 15 18 16 16 18 25 44 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 8. 16. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 18. 27. 37. 48. 55. 62. 68. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 41.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 08/23/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 20.4% 14.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 10.9% 9.4% 2.7% 0.8% 3.9% 4.7% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.6% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 1.7% 0.3% Consensus: 4.1% 11.6% 8.7% 3.9% 0.3% 1.7% 6.5% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 08/23/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 08/23/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 33 36 43 52 62 73 80 87 93 96 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 39 48 58 69 76 83 89 92 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 42 52 63 70 77 83 86 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 34 44 55 62 69 75 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT