* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 08/23/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 38 47 58 69 78 86 94 97 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 29 38 47 58 69 78 86 94 97 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 32 38 47 59 71 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 14 18 17 10 9 5 5 3 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 2 1 0 1 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 89 80 75 73 85 88 60 61 28 34 340 316 279 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 147 146 142 139 138 137 136 139 141 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 145 147 146 141 136 133 131 128 131 133 137 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 50 47 44 43 44 42 46 47 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 11 12 11 12 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 72 66 55 45 34 39 32 33 24 19 14 7 1 200 MB DIV -13 -6 0 0 -14 -15 -38 -36 5 10 29 11 19 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -6 -6 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1321 1197 1108 1044 986 908 844 833 838 881 908 926 842 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.6 11.1 11.8 12.4 13.2 13.7 14.4 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 40.5 41.8 42.9 43.8 44.7 46.4 48.0 49.3 50.5 51.4 52.3 53.3 54.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 17 15 14 13 13 14 13 14 16 23 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 433 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 8. 17. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 18. 27. 38. 49. 58. 66. 74. 77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.5 40.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 08/23/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 13.6% 12.6% 5.1% 1.9% 5.3% 6.0% 6.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% Consensus: 2.2% 5.7% 4.7% 1.7% 0.7% 1.9% 2.3% 2.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 08/23/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 08/23/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 27 29 38 47 58 69 78 86 94 97 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 26 35 44 55 66 75 83 91 94 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 30 39 50 61 70 78 86 89 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT