* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992018 09/22/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 43 47 52 55 57 58 60 61 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 43 47 52 55 57 58 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 45 48 51 51 50 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 8 3 3 8 13 13 16 19 20 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 5 4 0 -1 -1 1 2 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 51 49 49 94 188 269 290 278 244 255 248 254 263 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.2 28.0 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 126 124 125 129 140 151 150 150 147 148 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 129 127 129 136 152 165 162 157 152 150 152 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.5 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 66 67 70 70 65 67 66 66 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 59 53 51 47 40 32 11 5 -4 -12 -15 -22 200 MB DIV 31 25 14 -18 -35 -44 -20 19 42 87 82 67 42 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 0 1 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -7 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 765 848 937 1047 1180 1520 1900 1574 1244 1020 841 765 687 LAT (DEG N) 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.7 10.3 11.0 11.6 12.1 12.2 12.5 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 22.0 23.2 24.4 25.7 27.1 30.5 34.4 38.7 42.9 46.7 50.0 52.9 55.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 16 18 21 21 20 17 15 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 17 15 17 15 11 16 9 18 37 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 7.6 22.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992018 INVEST 09/22/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.64 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 18.1% 15.1% 11.0% 9.0% 12.0% 10.1% 20.2% Logistic: 2.9% 17.7% 9.6% 5.7% 4.9% 16.5% 16.6% 28.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 8.6% Consensus: 2.8% 12.9% 8.4% 5.6% 4.6% 9.6% 8.9% 19.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992018 INVEST 09/22/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 43 47 52 55 57 58 60 61 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 40 44 49 52 54 55 57 58 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 34 38 43 46 48 49 51 52 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 30 35 38 40 41 43 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT