* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992018 09/22/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 51 56 61 64 67 71 73 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 51 56 61 64 67 71 73 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 43 50 55 59 61 62 62 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 12 11 6 4 11 13 13 16 13 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 2 1 0 -2 -1 -1 5 2 2 SHEAR DIR 84 53 48 47 63 283 278 277 265 280 253 271 259 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.5 28.3 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 130 127 125 126 133 145 154 152 151 149 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 136 133 130 128 131 142 159 169 165 158 153 156 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 69 70 71 70 66 65 64 68 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 61 59 54 54 47 41 27 13 2 -9 -13 -14 200 MB DIV 65 31 32 34 10 -31 -45 -4 37 54 99 27 25 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -3 -2 1 1 0 0 -6 -8 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 701 780 861 938 1036 1305 1661 1797 1413 1107 894 752 743 LAT (DEG N) 7.2 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.1 10.8 11.4 11.8 12.0 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 20.7 22.0 23.2 24.3 25.5 28.3 31.8 36.0 40.3 44.5 48.2 51.5 54.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 13 16 19 21 21 20 17 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 21 18 15 17 13 7 12 10 41 29 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 29. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 21. 26. 31. 34. 37. 41. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 7.2 20.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992018 INVEST 09/22/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.81 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.67 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 17.0% 13.8% 9.5% 7.5% 11.6% 10.8% 21.6% Logistic: 1.9% 10.1% 4.0% 1.1% 0.8% 4.2% 11.4% 22.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 5.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 5.1% Consensus: 2.3% 10.8% 6.3% 3.6% 2.8% 5.5% 7.5% 16.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992018 INVEST 09/22/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 41 47 51 56 61 64 67 71 73 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 44 48 53 58 61 64 68 70 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 42 47 52 55 58 62 64 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 33 38 43 46 49 53 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT