* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992018 09/21/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 53 58 61 63 66 70 71 75 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 53 58 61 63 66 70 71 75 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 51 59 64 66 69 71 71 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 6 9 10 9 10 12 13 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -1 0 4 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 5 -3 SHEAR DIR 93 102 62 61 59 217 235 243 248 252 251 223 267 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 27.1 27.9 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 132 130 127 125 128 139 151 152 151 149 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 137 133 130 129 134 151 166 166 160 154 152 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 -53.9 -54.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 70 71 71 72 70 66 65 66 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 73 66 60 58 54 46 40 32 15 7 -4 -10 -15 200 MB DIV 107 81 55 50 39 -20 -36 -24 33 54 106 62 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -4 -4 4 0 1 -4 -2 -5 -8 -3 LAND (KM) 649 719 780 852 929 1152 1493 1868 1586 1229 987 800 723 LAT (DEG N) 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.9 9.5 10.0 10.7 11.3 11.8 11.8 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 19.3 20.7 21.9 23.1 24.2 26.8 30.2 34.0 38.4 42.8 46.8 50.0 52.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 15 18 21 22 21 18 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 17 21 18 16 15 11 15 10 22 31 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 36. 41. 41. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 6.8 19.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992018 INVEST 09/21/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.10 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.82 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 22.0% 18.0% 12.1% 9.8% 13.7% 12.7% 23.2% Logistic: 8.5% 45.9% 26.5% 13.2% 10.4% 19.5% 25.9% 40.2% Bayesian: 1.7% 23.4% 8.8% 0.9% 0.4% 8.7% 13.4% 26.7% Consensus: 5.7% 30.4% 17.8% 8.7% 6.9% 13.9% 17.3% 30.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992018 INVEST 09/21/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 43 47 53 58 61 63 66 70 71 75 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 42 48 53 56 58 61 65 66 70 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 41 46 49 51 54 58 59 63 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 35 38 40 43 47 48 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT