* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992018 09/21/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 45 52 59 61 64 64 66 67 67 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 45 52 59 61 64 64 66 67 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 48 55 61 65 67 67 63 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 19 19 10 7 11 11 16 20 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -6 -10 -9 1 2 0 2 -1 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 63 70 80 87 82 112 185 231 265 244 247 237 249 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.4 27.0 27.0 27.8 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 140 138 137 135 129 126 127 138 148 146 141 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 149 142 140 138 132 130 133 149 161 156 146 142 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 72 70 70 69 68 70 72 71 68 66 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 78 63 53 56 62 55 46 36 18 -1 -18 -40 -57 200 MB DIV 92 95 65 49 37 20 -16 -11 -7 54 63 98 36 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -3 2 5 3 1 1 2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 605 783 860 892 891 930 1113 1410 1792 1685 1370 1181 1043 LAT (DEG N) 6.3 5.7 5.6 5.8 6.3 7.6 8.6 9.4 10.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 18.2 19.9 20.9 21.7 22.3 23.9 26.3 29.4 33.3 37.6 41.8 45.6 49.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 9 8 9 11 15 18 21 22 20 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 11 28 33 34 32 22 17 15 12 14 10 8 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 22. 29. 31. 34. 34. 36. 37. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 6.3 18.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992018 INVEST 09/21/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.18 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.75 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 22.0% 17.7% 11.9% 9.5% 13.0% 11.8% 21.1% Logistic: 23.5% 58.1% 39.9% 26.0% 23.2% 29.4% 33.4% 46.2% Bayesian: 9.2% 63.2% 22.0% 8.7% 2.1% 13.5% 5.3% 36.4% Consensus: 13.4% 47.8% 26.5% 15.5% 11.6% 18.6% 16.8% 34.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992018 INVEST 09/21/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 41 45 52 59 61 64 64 66 67 67 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 40 47 54 56 59 59 61 62 62 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 40 47 49 52 52 54 55 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 38 40 43 43 45 46 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT