* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992018 09/21/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 39 43 45 46 49 52 59 67 74 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 39 43 45 46 49 52 59 67 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 33 37 40 43 45 46 50 58 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 7 4 4 12 11 9 6 3 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 7 6 7 9 7 3 0 1 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 137 118 128 133 129 164 209 226 241 289 8 349 302 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.3 27.1 27.9 28.7 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 125 124 121 120 128 138 150 159 166 165 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 131 132 130 126 125 135 148 165 173 173 172 167 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 65 67 67 72 74 72 70 72 69 72 71 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 63 56 46 39 44 33 37 44 43 40 34 15 200 MB DIV 77 80 61 64 40 5 -23 -7 20 26 36 75 69 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 0 0 1 14 7 3 0 -3 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 106 235 343 484 662 1062 1475 1873 1580 1210 932 757 645 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.2 LONG(DEG W) 14.8 16.6 18.5 20.5 22.4 26.3 30.1 33.9 37.8 41.6 44.8 47.6 49.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 17 15 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 9 11 8 10 8 9 15 19 30 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 30. 35. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 18. 20. 21. 24. 27. 34. 42. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 14.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992018 INVEST 09/21/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 4.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.82 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.67 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 33.0% 22.9% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 30.6% 42.3% 30.4% 23.3% 13.2% 23.0% 16.6% 25.1% Bayesian: 8.2% 25.8% 15.1% 3.2% 0.9% 6.9% 1.2% 27.3% Consensus: 15.5% 33.7% 22.8% 13.3% 4.7% 10.0% 10.4% 17.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992018 INVEST 09/21/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 33 36 39 43 45 46 49 52 59 67 74 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 34 38 40 41 44 47 54 62 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 33 34 37 40 47 55 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 24 25 28 31 38 46 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT