* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992018 09/21/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 34 37 37 37 37 38 40 45 51 59 V (KT) LAND 25 32 35 37 39 40 40 40 40 43 48 54 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 30 32 34 36 37 37 36 35 34 34 35 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 1 4 5 10 15 18 19 17 11 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 16 20 16 15 13 9 6 2 0 4 3 4 SHEAR DIR 139 130 199 191 182 220 211 229 247 284 287 279 287 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.1 26.8 27.9 28.7 29.4 29.9 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 126 126 122 118 125 139 151 162 170 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 134 133 129 123 132 150 167 175 174 173 173 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 62 66 69 71 73 73 72 70 69 68 68 67 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 71 61 55 44 29 22 24 31 37 42 46 54 200 MB DIV 79 90 85 64 41 1 18 4 31 36 38 32 66 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 3 5 19 19 15 7 1 1 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 0 136 281 389 558 980 1400 1844 1567 1138 799 544 360 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.4 10.4 10.1 9.7 9.3 9.0 8.6 8.3 LONG(DEG W) 13.3 15.2 17.3 19.4 21.4 25.6 29.6 33.8 38.1 42.3 46.0 49.2 51.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 20 21 20 20 20 20 21 21 20 17 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 6 7 9 9 9 10 11 17 31 29 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 30. 35. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -10. -9. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. 15. 20. 26. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 13.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992018 INVEST 09/21/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 7.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 4.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 34.2% 23.6% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 21.0% 27.4% 15.6% 14.1% 8.4% 20.7% 17.4% 18.0% Bayesian: 7.0% 16.6% 11.0% 1.6% 0.7% 3.3% 0.4% 16.5% Consensus: 11.8% 26.1% 16.7% 9.6% 3.1% 8.0% 10.4% 11.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992018 INVEST 09/21/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 32 35 37 39 40 40 40 40 43 48 54 61 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 31 32 32 32 32 35 40 46 53 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 26 26 26 26 29 34 40 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 18 18 18 18 21 26 32 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT