* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992018 08/17/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 45 56 63 67 71 74 77 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 45 56 63 67 64 68 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 43 50 56 56 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 19 12 9 17 9 10 14 17 23 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 2 1 -3 -1 -5 -3 -5 -4 -8 -2 SHEAR DIR 44 39 40 49 22 13 337 330 273 279 279 289 284 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.1 29.5 29.8 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 143 142 140 147 145 149 140 162 167 156 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 156 148 145 143 150 147 150 140 161 165 148 146 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.3 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.1 -55.0 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 12 11 13 13 14 14 14 13 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 57 56 49 51 49 51 50 51 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -9 9 9 13 22 24 15 14 -2 -8 -31 -39 200 MB DIV 29 29 40 38 52 28 23 18 2 13 21 39 18 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -2 0 -2 2 7 14 6 8 2 -1 LAND (KM) 585 537 411 283 207 311 390 293 145 44 76 291 237 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.5 14.4 15.6 16.8 17.9 18.7 19.4 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 54.0 55.7 57.4 58.9 60.5 63.5 66.5 69.6 72.7 75.8 78.8 81.5 83.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 16 16 15 16 16 16 15 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 19 28 34 26 32 41 73 35 60 74 112 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 20. 26. 31. 36. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 20. 31. 38. 42. 46. 49. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 54.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992018 INVEST 08/17/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.17 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.76 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.85 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 17.2% 13.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 14.8% 13.6% 6.6% 1.8% 3.7% 1.7% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% Consensus: 2.9% 10.8% 9.3% 5.2% 0.6% 1.3% 4.3% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992018 INVEST 08/17/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992018 INVEST 08/17/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 37 45 56 63 67 64 68 71 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 35 43 54 61 65 62 66 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 39 50 57 61 58 62 65 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 31 42 49 53 50 54 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT