* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992018 08/16/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 45 56 64 69 72 77 80 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 45 56 64 69 72 68 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 32 37 44 51 58 62 59 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 15 18 21 13 12 4 15 13 22 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -5 -5 -1 -3 1 -6 -2 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 61 47 46 39 38 44 1 318 297 279 285 272 284 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.0 28.6 28.3 28.7 28.4 29.3 29.8 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 146 148 146 139 148 143 149 145 159 167 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 160 155 157 154 143 153 146 153 145 160 165 154 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -54.9 -55.1 -55.4 -55.3 -54.8 -55.1 -54.7 -54.8 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 10 10 11 10 12 13 14 14 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 63 62 60 58 55 55 53 52 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 7 1 0 -3 8 16 24 20 13 0 -19 -52 200 MB DIV 60 71 68 49 20 20 21 50 18 22 15 17 15 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -2 2 -2 3 8 12 4 7 LAND (KM) 633 588 549 557 479 211 233 357 337 168 91 33 272 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.2 12.0 12.8 13.8 15.0 16.3 17.5 18.6 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 49.6 51.1 52.8 54.5 56.2 59.5 62.7 65.8 69.1 72.2 75.4 78.3 81.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 17 17 17 16 16 16 17 16 16 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 28 26 20 26 25 38 56 39 66 70 95 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 14. 20. 26. 31. 36. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 20. 31. 39. 44. 47. 52. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 49.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992018 INVEST 08/16/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.16 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.81 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.86 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 16.6% 12.7% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 16.9% 6.9% 1.4% 0.9% 4.1% 6.7% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 4.3% Consensus: 2.6% 13.6% 6.7% 3.0% 0.3% 1.4% 5.8% 3.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992018 INVEST 08/16/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992018 INVEST 08/16/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 29 35 45 56 64 69 72 68 71 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 34 44 55 63 68 71 67 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 30 40 51 59 64 67 63 66 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 33 44 52 57 60 56 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT