* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992018 08/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 52 63 71 77 81 85 89 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 52 63 71 77 81 85 89 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 35 41 48 57 67 78 89 93 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 17 19 21 16 15 8 12 11 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -2 -6 -5 -5 -4 0 -5 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 79 61 55 52 53 50 58 24 29 326 278 275 264 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.2 28.6 27.1 28.2 29.0 28.6 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 149 143 143 146 141 147 127 141 154 148 150 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 159 151 151 155 147 152 128 144 158 152 153 158 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.4 -55.5 -55.1 -55.2 -55.5 -54.8 -55.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 9 8 9 10 10 11 10 12 11 14 700-500 MB RH 69 71 68 67 66 64 63 63 59 61 59 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 10 9 18 13 2 18 19 26 38 28 38 9 200 MB DIV 46 67 70 78 79 39 37 14 15 19 42 35 31 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -6 -6 -5 -5 0 1 -2 0 8 12 4 LAND (KM) 660 561 483 421 415 281 66 67 179 186 223 269 184 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.9 10.6 11.3 12.2 13.3 14.5 15.5 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 48.0 49.6 51.2 52.8 54.4 57.5 60.4 63.2 65.9 68.8 71.9 75.4 78.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 15 14 14 15 15 17 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 21 25 30 30 23 18 14 2 6 34 51 70 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 14. 20. 26. 30. 35. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 27. 38. 46. 52. 56. 60. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 48.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992018 INVEST 08/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.16 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.83 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.92 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 19.7% 15.2% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 34.7% 18.4% 10.2% 6.7% 18.2% 33.3% 41.1% Bayesian: 2.4% 29.1% 4.7% 0.6% 0.4% 1.0% 1.8% 10.6% Consensus: 5.4% 27.8% 12.8% 6.9% 2.3% 6.4% 14.9% 17.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992018 INVEST 08/16/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992018 INVEST 08/16/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 37 43 52 63 71 77 81 85 89 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 39 48 59 67 73 77 81 85 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 42 53 61 67 71 75 79 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 33 44 52 58 62 66 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT