* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 10/01/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 39 40 40 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 39 40 40 31 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 39 41 40 37 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 43 42 45 51 56 61 63 57 42 21 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 1 0 -5 -3 -4 -3 -5 -4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 256 269 281 282 277 287 291 308 315 325 335 23 49 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 28.1 28.4 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 128 126 128 128 137 143 159 164 166 167 174 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 105 104 103 105 107 118 127 146 159 163 167 174 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -53.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 2 2 2 5 4 8 8 11 8 15 700-500 MB RH 55 49 46 44 43 45 48 51 48 47 53 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -50 -55 -44 -62 -96 -85 -94 -35 4 4 -13 -30 200 MB DIV 5 -24 -13 -1 -10 -18 -15 -39 -19 -49 -49 -42 -30 700-850 TADV -7 0 -1 0 -6 -10 -17 -23 -21 -28 0 7 7 LAND (KM) 35 53 56 49 37 -45 0 156 251 405 234 -174 -183 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.2 28.3 27.2 25.5 23.7 22.4 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 80.8 80.7 80.7 80.8 80.9 81.7 83.0 85.2 87.9 91.5 95.5 99.6 103.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 1 2 4 9 12 15 20 20 20 18 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 36 34 26 12 12 16 46 39 83 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -4. -14. -27. -39. -49. -53. -53. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. -1. -8. -21. -30. -37. -38. -35. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.6 80.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 10/01/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 192.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 10/01/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 10/01/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 39 40 40 31 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 36 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 23 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT