* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 09/30/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 26 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 28 29 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 22 25 24 23 21 21 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 23 37 44 44 52 60 64 64 61 46 24 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -5 -5 -7 -7 -6 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 262 254 253 268 281 275 283 287 304 308 324 327 355 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.9 28.1 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 130 127 126 124 123 125 134 138 152 156 159 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 110 104 103 101 101 104 115 121 139 146 150 145 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 3 1 0 2 1 4 3 7 6 10 8 700-500 MB RH 63 57 53 48 45 45 47 49 49 47 46 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -3 -7 -45 -48 -65 -89 -93 -110 -63 -39 -22 -27 200 MB DIV 13 13 1 -17 -17 -15 -9 -15 -38 -18 -46 -51 -48 700-850 TADV 8 2 -5 5 0 -8 -2 -20 -24 -21 -37 -5 -8 LAND (KM) -28 -1 28 30 34 24 -45 -36 69 169 251 200 -119 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.6 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.7 29.1 28.2 26.9 25.9 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 81.2 81.2 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.1 81.8 83.0 85.2 87.9 91.4 95.2 98.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 3 1 1 2 4 8 11 15 18 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 14 17 23 21 11 20 15 39 45 59 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. -2. -16. -31. -45. -57. -62. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. -1. -10. -23. -33. -40. -39. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 28.8 81.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 09/30/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 89.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 27.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 09/30/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 09/30/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 26 28 29 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 23 25 26 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT